Part D Premiums Could Rise 50% in 2027 for Seniors Who Keep Their Plan, KFF Finds: What to Check Before Dec. 7

People with stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans could see their average monthly premium jump 50% next year, from $34 to $51, if they stay in the plan they have now, according to a new KFF analysis of federal plan data published Oct. 30.

The projection covers stand-alone prescription drug plans, known as PDPs, which are used mostly by people in traditional Medicare. KFF found that three of every four PDP enrollees who do not get low-income help, about 10.4 million people, would pay a higher premium in 2027 if they make no changes during open enrollment, which runs through Dec. 7.

The findings point to one clear step for seniors: compare plans now. KFF expects the real 2027 average to come in below $51 once people switch to cheaper plans and new enrollees choose their coverage.

How much could Part D premiums go up in 2027?

KFF’s estimate assumes current enrollees keep their 2026 plan. Under that assumption, it projects:

• An average PDP premium of $51 a month in 2027, up $17 from $34;
• 2.4 million PDP enrollees facing an increase of more than $50 a month, compared with 38,000 people who faced an increase that large in 2026;
• No zero-premium stand-alone drug plans in 2027, so the 4.1 million people now in $0 plans would start paying a premium if they stay put; and
• Nearly 30% of PDP enrollees without low-income subsidies, about 3.9 million people, paying $100 a month or more, while 55% would pay less than $20.

Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage look very different. KFF projects their average monthly drug premium at $9 in 2027, up less than $2, because those plans can use Medicare rebate dollars to lower premiums.

Why are stand-alone drug plan premiums rising?

KFF points to the end of the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026. The demonstration gave extra premium subsidies to participating plan sponsors and capped how much a plan’s monthly premium could rise, at $50 for 2026. CMS, in its own 2027 announcement, said Part D is “returning to normal market conditions” as the demonstration was narrowed for 2026 and is discontinued in 2027.

Prices also vary widely between plans and regions. Among the eight national PDPs, KFF found average 2027 premiums ranging from about $6.50 a month for Wellcare Value Script Rx to $204.50 for AARP Medicare Rx Preferred, which was $126 in 2026.

Why does CMS project a much smaller increase?

CMS projects that the average total monthly premium for stand-alone drug plans will rise less than $1 in 2027, from $35.09 to $36. The agency also says 88% of beneficiaries who do not get low-income help will have access to a basic Part D plan costing $10.30 a month or less, and 93% to an enhanced plan for less than $6.

KFF said CMS did not explain the method behind its figure, which was based on September enrollment, and that CMS may have assumed people would switch to lower-cost plans. KFF’s $51 estimate, based on June enrollment, assumes no one switches. Either way, what a person pays in 2027 depends heavily on the plan they pick, and CMS urges beneficiaries to use open enrollment to review their coverage and compare options.

What other Part D costs change in 2027?

The standard Part D deductible rises to $700 in 2027 from $615, and KFF found nearly all PDP enrollees will face a deductible. The annual cap on out-of-pocket spending for covered drugs rises to $2,400 from $2,100, according to CMS’s 2027 rate announcement.

More plans are also using coinsurance, a percentage of a drug’s price, instead of flat copays for brand-name drugs. KFF found virtually all PDP enrollees will face median coinsurance of 25% for preferred brands and 35% for non-preferred drugs, which can make costs harder to predict.

What should seniors do before open enrollment ends Dec. 7?

• Check your plan’s Annual Notice of Change. It lists your plan’s 2027 premium, deductible and drug coverage.
• Compare plans on the Medicare Plan Finder. Enter every drug you take and your pharmacy to compare total yearly costs, not just premiums. Help is also available 24/7 at 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227).
• Get free one-on-one counseling. Each state’s State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) offers unbiased help comparing plans.
• See if you qualify for help with costs. Extra Help helps pay Part D premiums, deductibles, coinsurance and other costs for people with limited income and resources, and people enrolled in a Medicare Savings Program qualify automatically, according to CMS.
• Act by Dec. 7. Changes made during open enrollment take effect Jan. 1, 2027.

For more on getting ready, see HNC’s Medicare open enrollment checklist and our report on the 4.3 million Medicare enrollees losing their plans Dec. 31.

Key Takeaways

• KFF projects the average stand-alone Part D premium will rise 50%, from $34 to $51 a month, in 2027 if enrollees keep their current plan.
• About 10.4 million PDP enrollees without low-income help would pay more, and 2.4 million would see increases above $50 a month.
• CMS projects a much smaller rise, from $35.09 to $36; KFF says CMS may have assumed people switch plans.
• The standard deductible rises to $700 and the out-of-pocket cap to $2,400 in 2027.
• Medicare open enrollment ends Dec. 7, 2026; comparing plans is the main way to avoid a big increase.

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Featured image: Capsules spilling from a prescription bottle. (NIAID, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)